Repercussion of the kez components of public revenues and expenditures on the dznamics of the budget deficit in Western Balkan countries

[G. M. Janković]

268 listova

Biografija autora: list268. Bibliografija: list. 245-267.

Financial theory and policy

The budget deficit, as one of the central indicators of fiscal imbalance, represents a persistent challenge in the management of public finances. In modern economies, especially under conditions of instability and transitional developments, examining the causal relationships between public revenues and expenditures on the one hand, and the budget deficit on the other, gains particular importance. The subject of this doctoral dissertation is the analysis of the impact of the key categories of public revenues and public expenditures on the dynamics of the budget deficit in the Western Balkan countries in the period from 2008 to 2024. The research is focused on identifying and evaluating the fiscal determinants that shape the volume and structure of the budget deficit, with emphasis on tax and non-tax revenues, as well as key components of public spending. Within the theoretical and methodological framework, the dissertation includes an analysis of the budgetary system, the typology of deficits, approaches to deficit financing, and the concept of fiscal sustainability. The specific value of this research lies in the application of quantitative methods, including descriptive statistics, comparative analysis, and panel regression modeling, which enabled the examination of fiscal trends and their effects in five countries of the region: the Republic of Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Albania. The research findings confirmed the main hypothesis that basic types of public revenues and expenditures have a strong impact on the volume and structure of the budget deficit. It has been observed that non-tax revenues have the most significant impact on the level of the budget deficit, as well as revenues from corporate income tax, while revenues from excise duties do not show a statistically significant impact on the budget deficit. On the expenditure side, the structure of public spending, particularly the dominance of current over capital expenditures, shows a correlation with the volatility and depth of the budget deficit. The conclusion of the dissertation emphasizes that more efficient management of public revenues and expenditures represents a key lever for reducing fiscal imbalance and enhancing budgetary stability. In this context, the study provides a foundation for the further development of fiscal policy in the Western Balkan countries, based on the principles of transparency, efficiency, and sustainability of public finances.

budžetski deficit, javni prihodi, javni rashodi, zapadni balkan, fiskalna politika, održivost javnih finansija

budget deficit, public revenues, public expenditures, western balkans, fiscal policy, sustainability of public finances

336.143:336.02/.1(4-12)(043.3)

S-181

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