The impact of public expenditure on key macroeconomic variables in OECD countries and The Republic of Serbia

[Lj. R. Prole]

[23], 205 listova

Bibliografske reference uz tekst Bibliografija: list. 194-204

Financial theory and policy

Public expenditures represent a very important instrument by which the modern state acts on economic, political and social events. In economic theory, therefore, more and more attention is being paid to the effects that public expenditures have on the economic and social aspects of the functioning of the economy in modern conditions. The subject of the doctoral dissertation is an overview of the role and importance of consolidated public expenditures in the countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development – OECD and in the Republic of Serbia. The significance of the dissertation is reflected in the measurement of the impact of the volume and structure of consolidated public expenditures on basic macroeconomic variables in the period from 2010 to 2022. A special contribution to obtaining representative conclusions was provided by the application of adequate methods of statistical analysis in the research. By applying the methods of panel regression analysis and time series analysis, variations in the volume and structure of consolidated public expenditures and their impact on changes in crucial macroeconomic aggregates (GDP growth rate, unemployment, inflation, public debt and budget deficit) in OECD countries were examined and, which were previously, in accordance with the criteria of the International Monetary Fund, classified into two categories: advanced and emerging economies. The same methods were applied in the research based on data for the Republic of Serbia. Research on the impact of consolidated public expenditures on key macroeconomic variables is based on data obtained from several databases: OECD National Accounts Statistics (database), World Economic Outlook Database and from the website of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia. The results of the research confirmed the hypothesis that the level of economic development of the country determines the volume and structure of public expenditures, because in advanced economies the volume of consolidated public expenditures is higher compared to the volume in growing economies of the OECD. The obtained results also confirmed the hypothesis that in the structure of consolidated public expenditures, current expenditures represent the dominant category of government spending. Based on the results of the conducted research, it was concluded that changes in public expenditures can affect the development of the economy, given that they manifest conjunctural and structural effects. In this way, the main hypothesis in the research was proven, i.e. that the volume and structure of public expenditures show significant repercussions on key macroeconomic variables.

konsolidovani javni rashodi, tekući javni rashodi, kapitalni javni rashodi, OECD, napredne ekonomije, rastuće ekonomije, Republika Srbija

Consolidated public expenditures, Current public expenditures, Capital public expenditures, OECD, Advanced economies, Emerging economies, Republic of Serbia

336.152:338(100+497.11)(043.3) 336.152:330.101.54(100)"2010/2022"(043.3) 336.152:330.101.54(497.11)"2010/2022"(043.3)

S-181

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